Manitoba Transportation and Infrastructure’s Hydrologic Forecast Centre released its February Flood Outlook Report last Friday (Mar 1) which indicated a low to moderate risk of significant spring flooding across Manitoba basins.
Normal- to below-normal soil moisture at freeze-up and normal- to well-below-normal winter precipitation for most Manitoba basins have contributed to the low-to-moderate risk of spring flooding across the province. Water levels are expected to remain below dikes and community or individual flood protection levels. However, the risk of flooding may change depending on weather conditions including amount of precipitation between now and the spring melt.
The spring flooding risk is low to moderate for the Red River and tributaries including the Roseau River and the Pembina River. The spring flooding risk is low for the Assiniboine, Souris and Qu’Apelle Rivers and in northern Manitoba including the Saskatchewan and Carrot Rivers. The risk of spring flooding is generally low for the Whiteshell Lakes Region including the Winnipeg River system. The spring flood risk is moderate for the Interlake region. As in other years, there is a risk of ice jam-related flooding on the Fisher River and the Icelandic River.
Most Manitoba lake levels are normal to below normal for this time of year and within their capacity ranges. The risk of lakes flooding is low for most Manitoba lakes.
The Red River Floodway is not expected to be operated under normal and favourable future weather scenarios. However, in the event of unfavourable weather conditions, the floodway could be operated to mitigate water levels in Winnipeg. The Shellmouth Reservoir is being operated to reduce the risk of flooding downstream on the Assiniboine River, while providing sufficient storage for water supply and recreation.
This forecast could change depending on weather conditions including amount of precipitation between now and the spring melt. The Hydrologic Forecast Centre is monitoring a potential precipitation system that could impact Manitoba basins in the first week of March. The next flood outlook will be released in late March and will have a better assessment of Manitoba’s spring runoff conditions at that time.
The Manitoba government, local authorities and First Nations communities are proactively preparing for any spring flooding. This includes ice cutting and breaking on the Red River in late February, reviewing emergency plans, information sharing between governments and preparing resources used in flood responses.
The next flood outlook is near the end of this month, and will have a more accurate picture of what we can expect.
The 2024 spring flood outlook report is available at: february_2024_flood_outlook_report.pdf (gov.mb.ca)
