Province Releases Spring Flood Outlook:
Manitoba’s Hydrologic Forecast Centre has released its March spring flood outlook, showing a low to moderate risk of flooding across most of the province, with one notable exception: the Fisher River basin in the Interlake, where the risk is rated moderate to major heading into the spring melt.
Provincial officials say this year’s flood potential will depend heavily on weather conditions over the coming weeks, including any late‑season snowfall, spring rain, and how quickly temperatures rise. A slow, steady melt would help keep water levels manageable, while a rapid warm‑up or heavy precipitation could increase the risk of localized flooding.
For now, the province says most major rivers and lakes are expected to remain within their normal operating ranges after the spring runoff. The Red, Assiniboine, Souris, Icelandic, and parts of the Saskatchewan River system are all sitting at a moderate risk, while tributaries such as the Pembina, Rat, and Roseau rivers are considered low‑risk. Eastern Manitoba, including the Winnipeg River basin and Whiteshell Lakes, also falls into the low‑risk category.
Several factors are working in Manitoba’s favour this year. Soil moisture levels at freeze‑up were near or below normal, winter precipitation has been average to below average in many regions, and soil frost depths are generally shallower than usual, allowing for better absorption of meltwater. Snowpack levels are also within normal ranges across most basins, though parts of southern Manitoba remain below typical levels. The Fisher River basin is the exception, with normal to above‑normal snow‑water content contributing to its elevated risk.
Lake Winnipeg and Lake Manitoba are currently well below normal levels, and inflows are expected to remain lower than usual due to drier conditions across contributing basins.
The province has already completed ice‑cutting and breaking operations along the Red and Icelandic rivers to reduce the risk of ice‑jam flooding. However, officials warn that jam‑prone areas — including the Saskatchewan, Carrot, Swan, Icelandic, and Fisher rivers — still carry localized risk as ice conditions deteriorate.
Emergency management teams continue to work with municipalities, First Nations, and northern communities to prepare for potential flooding as the melt season approaches.
